Not tonight

Activity and sky conditions both limit the view.

Aurora

At 06:00

Weak

Local aurora outlook · current hour

Activity details

Local index 0.03 / 1 · provisional. Not a sighting probability.

Global Kp 0.0 · current outlook. Global context, not local visibility.

Near-term measurements can inform this hour, but conditions can change. See Live for current Bz and wind.

How we read these

Sky here

At 06:00

Poor

100% cloud · 9°C

Darkness: Dark
Moon: 47% lit · below horizon

Weather details

Cloud cover limits the view at this hour. Dark from 18:42.

Wind 53 km/h · rain 0.0 mm.

aurora nearly steady tonight · sky shown above

Hour: 06:00
Aurora: Weak · Kp 0.0
Sky here: Poor · 100% cloud
Darkness: Dark

Similar bars mean the forecast activity barely changes; Kp is issued in three-hour blocks. About the forecast

Find clearer sky nearby See the next 7 nights

Data updated 06:12Model estimate · not yet calibrated

How this is calculated

Aurora Odds excludes weather. It estimates whether auroral activity can reach this location during a dark hour. Clouds describe whether the sky is available for observing it.

Model estimate · not yet calibrated. The activity model and the practical sky guide are separate.

Practical viewing guide at 06:00: 0%. This is a simple activity × sky index, not a second Aurora Odds probability.

Aurora activity

0.03 · main limit

Local model potential from geomagnetic position, the activity outlook and valid near-term measurements. Not the Kp value itself.

Clouds

0.00 · main limit

The clear fraction of the forecast sky. A simple sky-availability guide, not a measured chance of seeing through clouds.

Darkness

0.90

Calculated from the Sun's elevation here at this hour. Civil twilight or brighter closes this gate.

Moon

1.00

A small contrast adjustment only when the Moon is above the horizon.

Show the raw numbers

Activity answers whether aurora could reach this location. The hourly bars and Best hour use only this activity value, without clouds, darkness or moon. Every location and every page of hours uses the same fixed 0–1 index scale. A short bar stays short even when it is the best hour; it is not a sighting percentage. Sky conditions combine cloud cover, darkness and moon separately.

Activity 0.0302 × sky 0.0000 = 0.00%

Sky = (1 − total cloud cover / 100) × darkness × moon. This linear cloud heuristic assumes the forecast clear fraction is usable; it does not model cloud optical depth, terrain, fog or local light pollution.

Darkness retains the existing solar-elevation curve: zero above −6°, rising to one at −18°. Moon retains one below the horizon; above it, one minus 0.22 times the illuminated fraction. Neither is applied twice.

Total cloud 100%. Low 99%, mid 100%, high 0%. Layers can come from a different weather model and do not enter the sky calculation.

Activity-only factor: 3.02%. Display ranges add fixed margins, not measured forecast errors.

Weather-independent model 2026-09-11.6 · sky context sky-context-v1.

Current solar-wind measurements on Live

Aurora: NOAA SWPC · Weather: Open-Meteo · local sun and moon calculations. Full model notes.

About Vik Dark Sky

Vik Dark Sky is a practical aurora base in South Iceland, Iceland, with the strongest viewing season usually September to April. Maritime cloud can change quickly, so the hourly cloud factor matters more than the daily forecast. Its geomagnetic latitude is about 63.0°, which is the latitude AuroraOdds uses when translating Kp into local visibility.