Tonight in Strahan Dark Sky, Australia · Sun, Oct 18 · local time
Change locationRight now: too bright — dark from 09:13 · see Live →
Tonight · similar activity through the night · dark 09:13–18:55
Check nearer the time
The provisional model shows little local support. Check again closer to this hour.
Aurora
At 14:00
Weak
Local aurora outlook · provisional forecast
Activity details
Local index 0.02 / 1 · provisional forecast. Not a sighting probability.
Global Kp 1.3 · Quiet forecast. Global context, not local visibility.
Kp and geomagnetic position inform this forecast. Check back nearer the hour. See Live for current Bz and wind.
How we read theseSky here
At 14:00
Clear
0% cloud · 13°C
- Darkness
- Dark
- Moon
- 50% lit · low
Weather details
Clouds, darkness and moon look favourable. Dark from 09:13.
Wind 13 km/h · rain 0.0 mm.
aurora nearly steady tonight · sky shown above
- Hour
- Aurora
- Weak · Kp 1.3
- Sky here
- Clear · 0% cloud
- Darkness
- Dark
Similar bars mean the forecast activity barely changes; Kp is issued in three-hour blocks. About the forecast
Data updated Model estimate · not yet calibrated
How this is calculated
Aurora Odds excludes weather. It estimates whether auroral activity can reach this location during a dark hour. Clouds describe whether the sky is available for observing it.
Model estimate · not yet calibrated. The activity model and the practical sky guide are separate.
Practical viewing guide at 14:00: 2%. This is a simple activity × sky index, not a second Aurora Odds probability.
Local model potential from geomagnetic position, the activity outlook and valid near-term measurements. Not the Kp value itself.
The clear fraction of the forecast sky. A simple sky-availability guide, not a measured chance of seeing through clouds.
Calculated from the Sun's elevation here at this hour. Civil twilight or brighter closes this gate.
A small contrast adjustment only when the Moon is above the horizon.
Show the raw numbers
Activity answers whether aurora could reach this location. The hourly bars and Best hour use only this activity value, without clouds, darkness or moon. Every location and every page of hours uses the same fixed 0–1 index scale. A short bar stays short even when it is the best hour; it is not a sighting percentage. Sky conditions combine cloud cover, darkness and moon separately.
Activity 0.0215 × sky 0.8905 = 1.91%
Sky = (1 − total cloud cover / 100) × darkness × moon. This linear cloud heuristic assumes the forecast clear fraction is usable; it does not model cloud optical depth, terrain, fog or local light pollution.
Darkness retains the existing solar-elevation curve: zero above −6°, rising to one at −18°. Moon retains one below the horizon; above it, one minus 0.22 times the illuminated fraction. Neither is applied twice.
Total cloud 0%. Low 0%, mid 0%, high 0%. Layers can come from a different weather model and do not enter the sky calculation.
Activity-only factor: 2.15%. Display ranges add fixed margins, not measured forecast errors.
Weather-independent model 2026-09-11.6 · sky context sky-context-v1.
Current solar-wind measurements on Live
Aurora: NOAA SWPC · Weather: Open-Meteo · local sun and moon calculations. Full model notes.
About Strahan Dark Sky
Strahan Dark Sky is a practical aurora base in Tasmania, Australia, with the strongest viewing season usually March to September. Local cloud cover is often the deciding factor after geomagnetic activity is high enough. Its geomagnetic latitude is about -53.3°, which is the latitude AuroraOdds uses when translating Kp into local visibility.