Worth checking

The model shows some local potential and the sky looks favourable. Check again closer to this hour.

Aurora

At 10:00

Moderate

Local aurora outlook · provisional forecast

Activity details

Local index 0.45 / 1 · provisional forecast. Not a sighting probability.

Global Kp 1.3 · Quiet forecast. Global context, not local visibility.

Kp and geomagnetic position inform this forecast. Check back nearer the hour. See Live for current Bz and wind.

How we read these

Sky here

At 10:00

Good

25% cloud · -3°C

Darkness: Dark
Moon: 48% lit · below horizon

Weather details

Cloud cover limits the view at this hour. Dark from 03:14.

Wind 6 km/h · rain 0.0 mm.

aurora only · sky shown above

Hour: 10:00 · best
Aurora: Moderate · Kp 1.3
Sky here: Good · 25% cloud
Darkness: Dark

Later hours are less certain. About the forecast

See the next 7 nights

Data updated 06:14Model estimate · not yet calibrated

How this is calculated

Aurora Odds excludes weather. It estimates whether auroral activity can reach this location during a dark hour. Clouds describe whether the sky is available for observing it.

Model estimate · not yet calibrated. The activity model and the practical sky guide are separate.

Practical viewing guide at 10:00: 34%. This is a simple activity × sky index, not a second Aurora Odds probability.

Aurora activity

0.45 · main limit

Local model potential from geomagnetic position, the activity outlook and valid near-term measurements. Not the Kp value itself.

Clouds

0.75

The clear fraction of the forecast sky. A simple sky-availability guide, not a measured chance of seeing through clouds.

Darkness

1.00

Calculated from the Sun's elevation here at this hour. Civil twilight or brighter closes this gate.

Moon

1.00

A small contrast adjustment only when the Moon is above the horizon.

Show the raw numbers

Activity answers whether aurora could reach this location. The hourly bars and Best hour use only this activity value, without clouds, darkness or moon. Every location and every page of hours uses the same fixed 0–1 index scale. A short bar stays short even when it is the best hour; it is not a sighting percentage. Sky conditions combine cloud cover, darkness and moon separately.

Activity 0.4547 × sky 0.7500 = 34.10%

Sky = (1 − total cloud cover / 100) × darkness × moon. This linear cloud heuristic assumes the forecast clear fraction is usable; it does not model cloud optical depth, terrain, fog or local light pollution.

Darkness retains the existing solar-elevation curve: zero above −6°, rising to one at −18°. Moon retains one below the horizon; above it, one minus 0.22 times the illuminated fraction. Neither is applied twice.

Total cloud 25%. Low 23%, mid 4%, high 0%. Layers can come from a different weather model and do not enter the sky calculation.

Activity-only factor: 45.47%. Display ranges add fixed margins, not measured forecast errors.

Weather-independent model 2026-09-11.6 · sky context sky-context-v1.

Current solar-wind measurements on Live

Aurora: NOAA SWPC · Weather: Open-Meteo · local sun and moon calculations. Full model notes.

About Fairbanks

Fairbanks is a practical aurora base in Alaska, United States, with the strongest viewing season usually late August to April. Interior Alaska is often much clearer than coastal Alaska in winter. Its geomagnetic latitude is about 65.2°, which is the latitude AuroraOdds uses when translating Kp into local visibility.